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Identifying the Threat
Doomsday Religious Movements often provide both verbal and tangible early warning signs that are symptomatic of a group’s volatility and propensity for violence. The challenge for government and law enforcement is to note those early-warning signs as a group shifts from a “preoccupation with enemies” to “enemy eradication”, i.e. from belief to
action. Such early- warning signs include:
Intensification of illegal activities. This early-warning sign is most often a noticeable increase in the illegal procurement of weapons, which often attracts the attention of locals, and signals that the group may be making the final preparations for its destiny in the cosmic battle of all
time. This occurred at Waco, Texas, before the confrontation with law enforcement agencies unfolded.
Humiliating circumstances. Should a group be humiliated to the extent that either its leader or apocalyptic scenario appears discredited, for example, if its prophecies fail to actualize by a set date or if group leaders are arrested on minor charges, then it may try to counter this defamation
by violently introducing its vision.
Relocation to a rural area. This indicates both a physical and psychological withdrawal, which usually precipitates the strengthening of group solidarity and increased control over members. A relocation betrays a group’s desire to carry out either the defence preparations or violent acts called
for by its scripted scenario.
Increasingly violent rhetoric. This may indicate that the group has reached a level of critical “fervour” and is ready to take the first step towards actualizing its rhetoric and triggering an apocalyptic scenario.
Struggle for leadership. Owing to the unstable nature of the leadership and the volatility of the group, any situation which threatens the leader’s control could result in violence. Examples include the challenging of group beliefs by dissidents and the questioning of the leader’s physical
health. All of these put the power of the leadership in question, and, by extension, its fundamental apocalyptic vision.
Annex I presents a brief table summarizing the preceding characteristics and serves as a quick reference guide.
A Canadian Example - the Order of the Solar Temple
The Order of the Solar Temple was a group espousing millennialist beliefs which met the preceding criteria of a Doomsday Religious Movement. The Order had members in the US, Quebec, Switzerland and France; in 1994, fifty-four members committed mass suicide. The group was composed of several leaders who were very charismatic and expert public
speakers, and who also had aggrandized beliefs about themselves. They believed in an imminent ecological apocalypse, where members were the “chosen ones” to repopulate the earth after its demise, but not before they had been persecuted on the earthly plane by non-believers. Other attributes typical of a Doomsday Religious Movement were the high degree of control exercised over members, the
promotion of bigamy within the group, and the physical withdrawal to a rural area. The alleged criminal activities of the Solar Temple (money laundering, drug and arms trafficking) were clear threats to public safety, as was the infiltration of political and business circles by several members.
The Solar Temple mobilized for their coming apocalypse by acquiring weapons and money. This prompted several high-profile investigations and arrests which could have hastened the suicide. This was an early warning sign: a humiliating circumstance running counter to their supposed glorious salvation before the onslaught of the apocalypse. Other events
which could have enhanced the feeling of humiliation included: an investigation initiated by the public utility into the Order’s infiltration of their company; the near bankruptcy of the Order and the loss of investor capital; then, negative media attention. Finally, other early- warning signs immediately preceded the mass suicide and signalled that their potential for violence could be soon
realized: a recent change in leadership; the failing health of one of the leaders; and foreboding, violent statements made by members.
The violence of the incident left 48 people dead in Switzerland and five in Quebec. Had the group believed that its salvation was tied to a direct conflict with the “enemy” and the leaders opted for “enemy eradication” rather than escape via mass suicide, the risk to members of the public would have been serious.
Conclusions - Continuing Threats to Canada
The irrationality which underlines the threat posed by Doomsday Religious Movements constitutes a different threat to public safety than that posed by the calculated terrorism traditionally manifested in the last 50 years, usually in support of an identified political cause. One estimation indicates that there are 1,200 active cults throughout the
world, and that roughly 400 subscribe to doomsday philosophies which foresee catastrophe on or around the year 2000. While it is not known which cults have the potential for violence, this does not imply that possible threats posed by Doomsday Religious Movements should be ignored, as they can quickly manifest themselves in a variety of forms. Rather, there clearly is a continuing threat
potential, given the temporal inaccuracies of the turning of the millennium (various scientific and religious accounts offer competing evidence as to when the new millennium will actually begin) and the tendency for groups to be unpredictable and give early-warning signs of their potential for violence, as well as ambiguities in their structure, dynamics and attributes.
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